D.C., Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia Politics Since 1968: Blue to Blue, Red to Blue, and Blue to Red

As someone who has lived in Maryland (~8 years), D.C. (1.5 years), and now West Virginia (1+ year), it’s been very interesting and striking to see the distinct cultural and political differences between these areas — despite being very close geographically.

I live only 60 miles from D.C., yet the current politics (and downstream policies) could not be more different. For example:

…despite the clear differences between these near-neighbors, it may be surprising to some to hear that West Virginia (derided in popular media as being a bastion of conservative, ignorant, white hillbillies) was for many decades a solidly blue (Democratic) state.

E.g., in 1988, West Virginia was one of only 11 states (including DC) that went for Democrat Michael Dukakis. WV also voted for Jimmy Carter, both in 1976 and 1980. In comparison, West Virginia’s neighbor Virginia went for Republicans Gerald Ford in 1976 and Ronald Reagan in 1980.

The reasons for West Virginia’s seismic shift from being “deep blue to ruby red” are complex and perhaps for another blog post, but let’s take a look at the empirical shifts in presidential election voting in the DMV area (plus WV — Eastern Panhandle area of WV is considered part of the DC Locality per the General Schedule) since 1968.

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Let’s start by looking at the presidential election voting results of D.C. in every year since 1968:

From the animation above, we can see that D.C. has voted overwhelmingly (~85%+) Democrat every election since 1968.

Now let’s look at West Virginia:

From above animation, we can make a few observations:

  • Besides voting for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984, West Virginia was a solid Democrat state in every year up until 2000, when it went for George W. Bush.

  • Since 2000, WV has voted Republican every year by overall majority.

  • Since 2012, every single county in West Virginia has voted Republican by majority.

  • Historically, the poorest areas of West Virginia (e.g., southern WV, like McDowell County) have voted Democrat, while the Eastern Panhandle (where I live) have voted more Republican (e.g., see vote in 1984 and 2000).

  • Currently, Jefferson County (where I live), the easternmost county and closest to D.C. (lots of MD and VA transplants move here), is among the most Democratic in vote (but still a minority — Biden received only 43.77% of the vote in 2020, while Trump got 54.26%).

Now let’s look at West Virginia’s neighbor, Virginia:

From the above animation, we can make a few observations:

  • Virginia voted Republican every year between 1968 and 2004.

  • In 2008, Virginia went blue (Democrat), voting for Obama. Virginia has now voted Democrat every year since 2008.

  • The two counties closest to DC, Arlington and Fairfax counties, have always been among the most liberal-voting counties in Virginia. E.g., see the voting map in 1976, 1992, 1996, 2004, etc.

  • Since 2008, Loudoun County and Prince William counties (close to DC but farther away than Arlington and Fairfax counties) have also voted Democrat.

Rounding out the “DMV” (DC, MD, VA), let’s look at Maryland now:

From the animation above, we can see that:

  • Maryland has been a strong Democratic state since 1992 (Bill Clinton 1st term).

  • Baltimore city has voted Democratic every election year since 1968.

  • The MD counties closest to DC (Montgomery, Prince George’s) have voted Democrat every year since 1988.

  • Howard County and Baltimore County did not become Democrat (in vote) until 1992.

Currently, Maryland is considered a solid Democratic state, ranked 7th most liberal in the nation (MA #1, HI #2, RI #3, CA #4, NY #5).

Let’s take a closer look at the percentage vote over time for DC, MD, VA, and WV:

From the graph above, we can see that:

  • D.C. has gotten progressively more liberal (Democrat) since 1968.

  • West Virginia for most of the 70’s, 80’s, and 90’s voted similar to Maryland (strong Democrat), but diverged suddenly in 2000 (voting for George W. Bush) and has gotten progressively more conservative (Republican) since 2000.

  • Virginia was historically the most conservative of the four, but since 2000 has become more liberal (Democrat) than West Virginia.

From the graph above, we can see mostly the inverse of the previous plot for the Democratic vote:

  • West Virginia’s vote for Republicans went from only 36.65% in 1996 to 68.62% in 2020.

  • Virginia’s vote for Republican has gone from 62.29% in 1984 to43.95% in 2020.

  • Maryland and Virginia closely mirror each other in the relative decline of Republican vote from 2004 to 2020; Maryland’s voting behavior is like Virginia, just 12% less Republican (~12% more Democratic).

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Finally, let’s zoom out and look at the election map results across the country since 1968:

A few observations:

  • Because of its population decline, West Virginia has gone from having 7 electoral votes in 1968 to only 5 in 2016.

  • Because of population increase, California has gone from having 40 electoral votes in 1968 to 55 in 2016. Texas in the same time has gone from having 25 electoral votes to 38.

Below is a look at the governor and legislature control across the 50 states. West Virginia is entirely Republican-controlled (red), while Maryland is entirely Democrat-controlled (blue). Virginia has a Republican governor, but is otherwise Democrat-controlled (State Senate and House) — split control below is purple.

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The history of D.C., Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia politics since 1968 is an interesting and possibly surprising one (at least to millennials like myself who haven’t lived long enough to experience the longer history).

The marked shift in West Virginia voting behavior is perhaps related to the drastic decline of the coal industry and Democrat’s shift in focus (e.g., the rise of so-called identity politics)…perhaps another post will examine the long history of labor unions and coal in West Virginia!

An Engineer's Analysis of Electric (EV) vs. Gas (ICE) Vehicle Costs

From a purely economic perspective (ignoring aspects like range anxiety or debatable environmental impact), do Electric Vehicles (EVs) make sense?

How much does one need to drive, how expensive does gas need to be, and / or how cheap does electricity need to be for the numbers ($) to make sense?

What if one starts with a fuel-inefficient Internal Combustion Engine [ICE] gas-powered car (e.g., < 20 Miles Per Gallon [MPG]) as the baseline? Does this tilt the numbers in favor of EVs?

What if one buys a highly battery-efficient electric vehicle (e.g., > 140 MPGe, or equivalently < 24.1 kWh used per 100 miles)?

Glad you asked….

Let’s do a deep dive!

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First, let’s start with quantifying how much it costs in “gas money” to own an ICE vehicle, as a function of fuel efficiency (MPG) and number of miles driven.

For reference, the cost of gasoline in the U.S. varies from a low of ~$3.10/gallon in Mississippi to around $5.50/gallon in large parts of California. For the week of 22 Apr 2024, the average price of gas in the U.S. was $3.79/gallon.

In Charles Town, WV (where I live) the average price of gasoline is about $3.53/gallon, as of April 2024. This is about 20 cents cheaper per gallon compared to both Baltimore (MD) and nearby Loudoun County (VA).

Keeping Charles Town cost of gasoline as a baseline, how much is the monthly cost for ICE driving?

My current ICE vehicle only gets about 20 MPG and I drive around 25,000 miles per year. This equates to ~$360/month spent on gas (see the point at [20, 25] above in green). If my car were to be 57 MPG instead (e.g., Toyota Prius), this would bring down my monthly gas costs to around $130/month.

If I drove a Ford Excursion that got around 10 MPG (6.8L V10) and drove 15,000 miles per year, this equates to ~$440/month. If one drove 35,000 miles in a 10 MPG vehicle, they would be spending around $1030/month in gas in Charles Town, WV!!

(According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, Americans drive on average 13,476 miles per year, or 36.92 miles per day.)

If one lived in Los Angeles, CA, where gas is ~$5.38/gallon (March 2024), the monthly gas costs above from WV would all increase by about 52.4%. E.g., my monthly gas costs would climb from around $360/month to around $550/month.

Conversely, if one lived in places with super cheap gasoline like ~$3.10/gallon in Mississippi, the monthly gas costs above from WV would all decrease by about 12.3%.

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Second, let’s now understand how much it costs to operate an electric vehicle, as a function of both power / battery efficiency (MPGe, or equivalent kilowatt-hours used per mile driven) and cost of electricity ($ / kWh).

For reference, the state with the lowest electricity rate in the U.S. is Nebraska, which averages about 9.85 cents per kilowatt-hour, or $0.0985/kWh (as of January 2024).

The state with the highest electricity rate in the U.S. is Hawaii, which averages about 44.28 cents per kilowatt-hour, or $0.4428/kWh (as of January 2024).

Electricity in Charles Town, WV is $0.1213/kWh (Potomac Edison provider).

In Baltimore, MD it is ~$0.17/kWh.

In Bismarck, ND it is $0.0828/kWh (cheap).

And in Los Angeles, CA it is $0.291/kWh (expensive).

Let’s also briefly discuss EV efficiencies, which are typically expressed either in MPGe [higher is better], or kWh used per 100 miles [lower is better]. Given MPGe (e.g., 110), one can find the equivalent kWh/100 miles by dividing 3370 by the MPGe. E.g., 110 MPGe = 30.63 kWh/100 miles. Conversely, given kWh/100 miles, one can find MPGe by dividing 3370 by the kWh/100 mile value. E.g., 25 kWh / 100 miles = 134.8 MPGe.

So how many dollars per month does it take to operate different EVs, as we vary both efficiency and driving mileage? Keeping the 12.13 cents per kilowatt-hour cost of electricity in Charles Town WV, let’s take a look:

We can see from above that even while driving 35,000 miles per year with a pretty inefficient 45 kW/hr EV (like heavy electric pickups like the Rivian R1T), in a place with relatively cheap electricity like Charles Town, the “electricity costs of driving” only amount to ~$160/month.

But what if we live in a place with more expensive electricity (like Hawaii or California)?

Let’s take the relatively efficient Tesla Model 3 (the 2nd most popular EV in the U.S. right now), which only uses up 25.3 kWh/100 miles as a baseline and look at how much the monthly electricity costs are:

We can see from above that driving 30,000 miles per year in a Tesla Model 3, in a state with cheap electricity like North Dakota or West Virginia amounts to ~$65-80/month in electricity costs. In Michigan, this increases to about $110/month. In Alaska, $150/month. In Massachusetts, $175/month. In California, $190/month. And in Hawaii, the state with the most expensive electricity, $280/month.

Below is the same curve but with a more inefficient EV, like the Rivian R1T. The Rivian R1T monthly electricity costs are all ~67% higher than driving the Tesla Model 3 Long Range model, regardless of how much you drive and what the local electricity-rate providers charge.

So now let’s put the costs of operating an ICE vehicle (gas) against those with an electric vehicle and see what the cost differences are…using Charles Town, WV as the baseline for electricity costs (12.13 cents per kilowatt-hour), how much do we save if we drove an EV instead of a gas car, as a function of miles driven and MPG of the gas-powered car?

Let’s take a look:

From above, we can see that if one drove 15,000 miles per year in an “average” car that gets 25 MPG, one would save ~$140/month driving a Tesla Model 3 LR instead. If one drove 30,000 miles in a SUV that only got 10 MPG and instead drove the Tesla, they would be saving $780/month!

But if one is driving a fuel-efficient ICE vehicle like a Toyota Prius getting 55 MPG, driving 30,000 miles per year, a Tesla would only save them $85/month.

Driving 25,000 miles in a 20 MPG ICE would make driving a Tesla instead save oneself ~$305/month.

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Finally, let’s take a look at the amount of time it would take to recoup the "premium” that car manufacturers tend to charge for a new EV over their rough ICE-equivalent.

For the 2024 Mini Cooper Hardtop 2 Door, the electric model starts at $30,900, while the gas (ICE) model starts at $25,800. This is a $5100 “premium”. The gas Mini Cooper gets about 32 MPG combined, while the electric gets 110 MPGe. So how long does it take to recoup the EV premium if one drove 25,000 miles per year?

In Charles Town WV where gas is about $3.50/gal and electricity 12 cents/kWh, the amount of time it would take to recoup the $5100 EV premium is about 2.5 years. In Los Angeles CA where gas is about $5.38/gal and electricity 29 cents/kWh, it would take 2.24 years. In a place with electricity costs of 20 cents/kWh but cheap gas of $3.10/gal, it would take 4.77 years. And we can see above in the dark blue region that in places with very expensive electricity and very cheap gas, operating an EV does not make sense from an economic perspective, as it is effectively cheaper to drive a gas-powered car.

Let’s do one more example. The 2024 Subaru Solterra EV starts at $44,995 while the rough size-equivalent, but gas-powered Subaru Forester starts at only $27,095. This is an over $17,000 “EV premium”. So what is the payoff timeline for buying a Solterra over a Forester? If one drove “a lot”, at 25000 miles per year, this is the curve below [the Solterra gets about 104 MPGe, while the Forester gets 29 MPG combined]:

We can see that even while driving 25,000 miles per year, the time to recoup the large EV premium of the Solterra over the Forester is quite long. In Charles Town WV, it would take ~8.96 years to recoup the difference in purchase costs! In a place that charges 30 cents/kWh and $4.50/gallon, it would take 12.2 years. In a place that charges 26.7 cents/kWh and $3.60/gallon, it would take 18.9 years!

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In conclusion, the tradeoff in buying and operating an electric vehicle (EV) versus a gas (ICE) vehicle all depend on the costs of gas, electricity, driving habits, and efficiency (MPG and MPGe) of the vehicles in consideration.

If one buys an efficient EV (e.g., Tesla Model 3, Hyundai Ioniq 6), lives in a place with cheap electricity (e.g., Southeast or using solar panels) and / or expensive gas, drives a lot (e.g., over 20,000 miles per year), and is coming from an alternative / status quo of a relatively inefficient gas car (e.g., getting less then 20 MPG), then going electric makes a lot of sense — potentially saving many hundreds of dollars every month.

A Socioeconomic and Blue Ridge Crestline Divide: An Analysis of Jefferson County WV vs. Loudoun County VA

Appalachia:
~26.3 Million

All of West Virginia and parts of 12 other states comprise Appalachia.

(Dark red counties in the map form traditional Appalachia. Source.)

West Virginia is the only state in the U.S. that is located entirely within Appalachia.

Appalachians have historically been stereotyped as the “backward, barefoot, poor white hillbilly” — unflattering portrayals of dirt-smeared faces, or so-called “rednecks” on trailer steps chain-smoking abound.

[B&W Photos Source: John Dominis/Life Pictures/Shutterstock; 1964 Appalachia in Eastern Kentucky]

There is no doubt that West Virginia experiences dire poverty. It is routinely ranked as one of the poorest states in the country:

West Virginia:
3rd Poorest in US

Similar (but slightly lower than) poverty rates as Louisiana and Mississippi

Sobering West Virginia Foster Care Statistics

When adjusted for population, West Virginia leads the nation with 1,710 foster kids in care per 100,00 residents under age 21 (Alaska is second and Montana is third). The opioid crisis in the state is an obvious contributing factor.

Despite the systemic issues and (largely unfair and ignorant) stereotypes, West Virginia is extremely rich (in culture, history, resources, kindness, beauty).

As a transplant to West Virginia who has now lived in the state for a year, I am proud to live in the state and hope to raise my future kids here (and if they develop an Appalachian accent, I will be proud!).

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One interesting aspect of living in Charles Town, the county seat of Jefferson County WV, is that I live in the richest county of West Virginia, which is also adjacent to Loudoun County, the richest county of Virginia and often ranked as the richest county of the US, with a 2022 median household income of $170,643.

From where I live, I can be in most of Loudoun County within ~25-35 minutes; among other things, this is where I receive my medical and dental care and do any “fancy” shopping necessary, like going to Trader Joe’s or Whole Foods (neither of which exist in the entire state of WV — disinvestment in the state is a real thing and one reason among many it remains so poor).

When my wife and I were considering where to move, from Baltimore, we considered some places in Loudoun County like Purcellville, Leesburg, and Hamilton — but largely chose West Virginia because it is so much cheaper (among many other benefits: cultural and economic).

Loudoun County, VA

Bordered to west by Jefferson County, WV and north by Frederick County, MD

With my wife being able to work from home, the ability to purchase a nice SFH (Single Family Home) in WV vice townhouse in VA [for our limited budget] was worth trading off a longer commute for me.

Living in West Virginia but working in Virginia or Maryland is not uncommon.

In my neighborhood, there are noticeably several Loudoun County Sheriff vehicles and a Reston Police car; there are also many nurses and teachers who choose to live in WV but work in nearby VA or MD for the higher pay. Most of my neighbors work in Loudoun County, Fairfax County, or even Washington, D.C., and make the long commutes work in support of their families (e.g., taking the MARC train from WV to Union Station in DC).

So what exactly is the difference between Jefferson County, WV and Loudoun County, VA — which are only separated by the crestline of the Blue Ridge Mountains (not the Shenandoah River, as one might expect)?

Let’s take a look at five differential aspects: housing, income, population, quality of public schools, and politics.


#1: Housing.

The median SFH in Jefferson County sold for $439,990 in February 2024 (median of 67 days on market). This is ~47.6% of the median sale price of Loudoun County, $925,000 (median of only 26 days on market).

In short, homes in Loudoun County are around twice as expensive as Jefferson County (2.1x) yet sell more than twice as fast (2.6x).

Furthermore, when we look at property tax rates, we see that Loudoun County exacts a 0.875% property tax rate of the Fair Market Value, while Jefferson County largely exacts a 0.584% property tax rate of the Assessed Value, which is 60% of the Fair Market Value — or an effective 0.3504% property tax rate of the Fair Market Value.

Therefore, Loudoun County has an effective property tax rate ~2.5x higher than that of Jefferson County.

The annual property tax bill on the median SFH in Loudoun County is around $8,093, while that of Jefferson County would be $1,542.


#2: Income.

According to the U.S. Census, in 2022 the median household income of Loudoun County was $170,463 while the median household income of Jefferson County was $93,744 (~69.8% higher than the median West Virginia household income of $55,217).

The per capita income of Loudoun County was $67,251 while the per capita income of Jefferson County was $42,359. (The per capita income of West Virginia is $31,462.)

On a median basis, Loudoun County households are ~81.8% richer than Jefferson County (and around 3.1x [210%] richer than West Virginia overall).

On a per capita basis, Loudoun County is ~58.8% richer than Jefferson County (and around 2.1x [114%] richer than West Virginia overall).


#3: Population.

According to the U.S. Census, in 2023 the population of Loudoun County was 436,347 while the population of Jefferson County was 59,787.

Loudoun County has ~7.3x the population of Jefferson County.

When factoring in geographic area, the normalized population density statistics are as follows:

Loudoun County has ~845 people per square mile, while Jefferson County has around 282 people per square mile.

Loudoun County has ~3.0x the population density as Jefferson County.

(This differential in population shows up in traffic and wait lines in grocery stores: practically none in WV, noticeable [quasi-painful during peak hours] in VA.)


#4: Quality of Public Schools.

For this, we turn to GreatSchools and look at all high schools in each county.

Jefferson County has only two public high schools: Washington HS and Jefferson HS. GreatSchools ranks these as a 6/10 and 7/10, respectively — an overall county average of 6.50/10 for high schools.

Loudoun County, on the other hand, has 12 public high schools: two are ranked 8/10, four are ranked 7/10, five are ranked 6/10, and one is ranked 5/10. This is an overall county average of 6.58/10 for high schools.

Loudoun County has about the same quality (ranked) public high schools as Jefferson County (only a 1.01% difference).

The two high schools in Jefferson County are ranked by US News as both being amongst the Top 10 Best High Schools in West Virginia (Washington HS being #10 in West Virginia, Jefferson HS being #7 in West Virginia).

This in spite of the fact that West Virginia is ranked as the least educated state in the country (#50).


#5: Politics.

West Virginia is considered to be the second most conservative state in the U.S., with 68.6% of West Virginians voting for Trump in 2020.

So how does Jefferson County (considered to be very liberal for WV) compare to Loudoun County (considered pretty conservative for northern VA)?

In 2020, 54.26% of Jefferson County voted for Trump, while 43.77% voted for Biden.

This is noticeably more liberal than Jefferson County’s western neighbor, Berkeley County (county seat of Martinsburg, WV), which voted 64.57% in favor of Trump and 33.35% in favor of Biden.

In 2020, 36.51% of Loudoun County voted for Trump, while 61.54% voted for Biden.

This is noticeably more conservative than Arlington County, VA (closer to D.C.), which voted 17.08% in favor of Trump and 80.60% for Biden.

Loudoun County is ~41% more likely to vote Democratic than Jefferson County, while Jefferson County is about 49% more likely to vote Republican than Loudoun County.

Interestingly, Jefferson County (and much of West Virginia) was not always so conservative; in fact, for many decades, it was solidly blue (Democratic). It was not until 2008 that Jefferson County became more Republican (in relative vote) than Loudoun County:

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In summary, compared to Jefferson County (WV), Loudoun County (VA) has:

  • ~2x more expensive homes that sell more than 2x faster

  • ~2.5x higher property tax rate

  • ~82% richer households (on median basis)

  • ~59% richer population (on per capita basis)

  • ~7.3x the population

  • ~3.0x the population density

  • About the same quality public high schools across the county (per GreatSchools)

  • ~41% higher Democratic voter base

  • ~33% lower Republican voter base

All in all, the tradeoffs of living in Jefferson County vice Loudoun County are worth it (or even advantageous) for me and my family.

We love living in Wild and Wonderful West Virginia and wouldn’t trade it for anything else!