D.C., Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia Politics Since 1968: Blue to Blue, Red to Blue, and Blue to Red

As someone who has lived in Maryland (~8 years), D.C. (1.5 years), and now West Virginia (1+ year), it’s been very interesting and striking to see the distinct cultural and political differences between these areas — despite being very close geographically.

I live only 60 miles from D.C., yet the current politics (and downstream policies) could not be more different. For example:

…despite the clear differences between these near-neighbors, it may be surprising to some to hear that West Virginia (derided in popular media as being a bastion of conservative, ignorant, white hillbillies) was for many decades a solidly blue (Democratic) state.

E.g., in 1988, West Virginia was one of only 11 states (including DC) that went for Democrat Michael Dukakis. WV also voted for Jimmy Carter, both in 1976 and 1980. In comparison, West Virginia’s neighbor Virginia went for Republicans Gerald Ford in 1976 and Ronald Reagan in 1980.

The reasons for West Virginia’s seismic shift from being “deep blue to ruby red” are complex and perhaps for another blog post, but let’s take a look at the empirical shifts in presidential election voting in the DMV area (plus WV — Eastern Panhandle area of WV is considered part of the DC Locality per the General Schedule) since 1968.

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Let’s start by looking at the presidential election voting results of D.C. in every year since 1968:

From the animation above, we can see that D.C. has voted overwhelmingly (~85%+) Democrat every election since 1968.

Now let’s look at West Virginia:

From above animation, we can make a few observations:

  • Besides voting for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984, West Virginia was a solid Democrat state in every year up until 2000, when it went for George W. Bush.

  • Since 2000, WV has voted Republican every year by overall majority.

  • Since 2012, every single county in West Virginia has voted Republican by majority.

  • Historically, the poorest areas of West Virginia (e.g., southern WV, like McDowell County) have voted Democrat, while the Eastern Panhandle (where I live) have voted more Republican (e.g., see vote in 1984 and 2000).

  • Currently, Jefferson County (where I live), the easternmost county and closest to D.C. (lots of MD and VA transplants move here), is among the most Democratic in vote (but still a minority — Biden received only 43.77% of the vote in 2020, while Trump got 54.26%).

Now let’s look at West Virginia’s neighbor, Virginia:

From the above animation, we can make a few observations:

  • Virginia voted Republican every year between 1968 and 2004.

  • In 2008, Virginia went blue (Democrat), voting for Obama. Virginia has now voted Democrat every year since 2008.

  • The two counties closest to DC, Arlington and Fairfax counties, have always been among the most liberal-voting counties in Virginia. E.g., see the voting map in 1976, 1992, 1996, 2004, etc.

  • Since 2008, Loudoun County and Prince William counties (close to DC but farther away than Arlington and Fairfax counties) have also voted Democrat.

Rounding out the “DMV” (DC, MD, VA), let’s look at Maryland now:

From the animation above, we can see that:

  • Maryland has been a strong Democratic state since 1992 (Bill Clinton 1st term).

  • Baltimore city has voted Democratic every election year since 1968.

  • The MD counties closest to DC (Montgomery, Prince George’s) have voted Democrat every year since 1988.

  • Howard County and Baltimore County did not become Democrat (in vote) until 1992.

Currently, Maryland is considered a solid Democratic state, ranked 7th most liberal in the nation (MA #1, HI #2, RI #3, CA #4, NY #5).

Let’s take a closer look at the percentage vote over time for DC, MD, VA, and WV:

From the graph above, we can see that:

  • D.C. has gotten progressively more liberal (Democrat) since 1968.

  • West Virginia for most of the 70’s, 80’s, and 90’s voted similar to Maryland (strong Democrat), but diverged suddenly in 2000 (voting for George W. Bush) and has gotten progressively more conservative (Republican) since 2000.

  • Virginia was historically the most conservative of the four, but since 2000 has become more liberal (Democrat) than West Virginia.

From the graph above, we can see mostly the inverse of the previous plot for the Democratic vote:

  • West Virginia’s vote for Republicans went from only 36.65% in 1996 to 68.62% in 2020.

  • Virginia’s vote for Republican has gone from 62.29% in 1984 to43.95% in 2020.

  • Maryland and Virginia closely mirror each other in the relative decline of Republican vote from 2004 to 2020; Maryland’s voting behavior is like Virginia, just 12% less Republican (~12% more Democratic).

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Finally, let’s zoom out and look at the election map results across the country since 1968:

A few observations:

  • Because of its population decline, West Virginia has gone from having 7 electoral votes in 1968 to only 5 in 2016.

  • Because of population increase, California has gone from having 40 electoral votes in 1968 to 55 in 2016. Texas in the same time has gone from having 25 electoral votes to 38.

Below is a look at the governor and legislature control across the 50 states. West Virginia is entirely Republican-controlled (red), while Maryland is entirely Democrat-controlled (blue). Virginia has a Republican governor, but is otherwise Democrat-controlled (State Senate and House) — split control below is purple.

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The history of D.C., Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia politics since 1968 is an interesting and possibly surprising one (at least to millennials like myself who haven’t lived long enough to experience the longer history).

The marked shift in West Virginia voting behavior is perhaps related to the drastic decline of the coal industry and Democrat’s shift in focus (e.g., the rise of so-called identity politics)…perhaps another post will examine the long history of labor unions and coal in West Virginia!